🚨 Alert #2882 Wed Aug-19 13:22:37
Global markets declined sharply with Asian semiconductor stocks leading losses amid rising oil prices, bond yields, and AI valuation concerns.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.29% | +0.38% | 408.53 | 433.37 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.76% | +0.38% | 36.06 | 37.68 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.95% | +2.13% | 918.41 | 966.00 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.77% | -0.12% | 169.82 | 176.40 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.61% | -0.01% | 341.20 | 346.49 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.54% | +0.34% | 158.63 | 166.18 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.47% | +0.03% | 450.97 | 488.84 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.41% | +0.48% | 217.07 | 221.80 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.35% | +0.17% | 1750.70 | 1813.08 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.33% | +0.81% | 463.50 | 488.88 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.30% | -0.04% | 335.80 | 351.49 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.26% | -0.10% | 539.95 | 553.68 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.22% | -0.07% | 258.76 | 267.25 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.18% | +0.30% | 358.32 | 380.89 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.03% | -0.22% | 309.38 | 318.89 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSM (other: Global markets declined sharply with Asian semiconductor stocks leading losses amid rising oil prices, bond yields, and AI valuation concerns.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long TSM, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -0.35% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +2.06% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short TSM at close, exit next close (other: Global markets declined sharply with Asian semiconductor stocks leading losses amid rising oil prices, bond yields, and AI valuation concerns.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | TSM | ▼ short | 2 | 412.85 | 415.20 | -4.70 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S4 | +1.17% | -1.19% | Signal: Partially right — the short did move favorably by as much as +1.17% while open, so the predicted downside materialized intraday, but TSM finished higher by the mandated next-close exit, meaning the signal was wrong over the actual holding horizon it was designed for. Timing: Not the problem — price was only +0.29% off the prior close at entry, so the anticipated decline hadn't already occurred. Exit: The dominant factor. The fixed next-close exit gave back the entire +1.17% (~$9.60) of available favorable movement and realized -0.57%, landing near the worst unrealized (-1.19%); the loss came from holding through the reversal, not from a missing move. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.