Rising U.S. Treasury yields driven by competition for capital between the federal government and AI-focused tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Meta are increasing borrowing costs across the economy.
verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AMZN (other: Rising U.S. Treasury yields driven by competition for capital between the federal government and AI-focused tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Meta are increasing borrowing costs across the economy.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long AMZN, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -0.30%
overnight drift: short AMZN at close, exit next close (other: Rising U.S. Treasury yields driven by competition for capital between the federal government and AI-focused tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Meta are increasing borrowing costs across the economy.)
Signal: Wrong over the holding horizon — the short lost 2.4% (259.52 → 265.76), though the +3.17% best unrealized shows the predicted downside did occur intraperiod before reversing hard. Timing: Entry came after only a modest dip (-0.40% since prior close), so the move had not meaningfully happened pre-entry; timing isn't the issue here. Exit: This is the dominant factor — the position was up as much as +3.17% while open, but the mechanical next-close exit gave back the entire gain and then some, realizing near the worst unrealized (-2.60%). Bluntly: the trade captured roughly the worst available outcome despite a substantial favorable move being on the table.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
