kingfisher — alert #2638

🚨 Alert #2638 Fri Aug-14 16:00:26

We'd be the last ones to know whether an invasion of Taiwan is imminent: Michael Pillsbury | Fox Business Video

foxbusiness.com · Fri Aug-14 01:00:00 published · Fri Aug-14 16:00:26 alerted · alerted 15h 0m after publish · read at www.foxbusiness.com ↗ · regulatory · mat 65

Rising geopolitical tensions and Chinese missile tests near Taiwan are causing market volatility for semiconductor stocks due to supply chain risks.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary TSM	▼ bearish	REPRICING	-1.00%	+0.05%	424.61	430.62
AVGO	▼ bearish	PRICED	-5.17%	-0.12%	389.13	419.80
peer AMD	▼ bearish	PRICED	+4.28%	-0.31%	483.65	515.70
MU	▼ bearish	REPRICING	+1.96%	-0.02%	957.90	985.58
PLTR	▼ bearish	REPRICING	-1.51%	-0.52%	173.81	179.52
ASML	▼ bearish	FRESH	-0.69%	+0.25%	1820.94	1857.95
AMZN	▼ bearish	FRESH	-0.54%	-0.22%	262.60	265.65
SMCI	▼ bearish	FRESH	+0.46%	-0.43%	38.79	40.34
NVDA	▼ bearish	FRESH	+0.36%	+0.40%	224.71	226.98
MSFT	▼ bearish	FRESH	+0.34%	-0.08%	494.70	511.06
META	▼ bearish	FRESH	-0.27%	-0.49%	567.32	600.94
GOOGL	▼ bearish	FRESH	-0.13%	-0.12%	344.61	350.14
QCOM	▼ bearish	FRESH	+0.12%	-0.34%	163.22	166.54
AAPL	▼ bearish	FRESH	-0.02%	+0.10%	304.36	307.27

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	TSM	○ skip	—	news 8-24h old at decision, floor 4h → close -0.02%
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	AMD	○ skip	—	verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.28% · Δ 30m -0.31% · px 503.68 (prev 483.01) → close +1.79%
S4	TSM	○ skip	—	news 8-24h old at decision, floor 4h

📈 Trades

no trades spawned

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.