Mon Aug-31 19:01:54
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #262 Mon Jul-20 17:00:22
China's Coast Guard Rehearses Blockade Tools as Taiwan Plans Counter-Drills
China's coast guard significantly increased maritime pressure and vessel queries around Taiwan, escalating geopolitical tensions that threaten the semiconductor supply chain centered on TSMC.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.61% | +0.09% | 390.66 | 409.60 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +5.25% | +0.92% | 859.68 | 900.06 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.83% | +0.39% | 502.09 | 525.31 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.11% | +0.21% | 374.54 | 383.41 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.84% | -0.15% | 347.73 | 359.49 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.32% | +0.30% | 324.24 | 333.43 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.92% | +0.25% | 246.72 | 252.85 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.64% | -0.11% | 202.33 | 207.26 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.38% | +0.43% | 388.63 | 402.83 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.13% | +0.56% | 170.05 | 176.17 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.41% | -0.16% | 1730.44 | 1791.62 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.33% | +0.19% | 23.83 | 24.95 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.21% | -0.15% | 637.32 | 678.03 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.61% · Δ 30m +0.09% · px 404.79 (prev 398.37) → close -0.55% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.64% · Δ 30m -0.11% · px 206.14 (prev 202.81) → close -1.39% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.61% · Δ 30m +0.09% · px 404.79 (prev 398.37) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.