Mon Aug-31 19:02:45
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #241 Mon Jul-20 15:30:29
Xi Jinping orders China to take over Taiwan by 2027
Reports indicate Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered a takeover of Taiwan by 2027, escalating geopolitical tensions and posing severe risks to TSMC's operations and the global semiconductor supply chain.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.46% | -0.06% | 390.66 | 409.60 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.05% | +0.84% | 502.09 | 525.31 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.78% | -0.03% | 859.68 | 900.06 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.38% | 0.00% | 347.73 | 359.49 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.49% | +0.83% | 374.54 | 383.41 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.09% | -0.64% | 324.24 | 333.43 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.51% | +0.08% | 202.33 | 207.26 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.84% | +0.32% | 246.72 | 252.85 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.61% | +0.74% | 637.32 | 678.03 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.52% | +0.56% | 170.05 | 176.17 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.41% | -0.28% | 1730.44 | 1791.62 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.39% | -0.02% | 23.83 | 24.95 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.11% | +0.82% | 388.63 | 402.83 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.46% · Δ 30m -0.06% · px 404.20 (prev 398.37) → close -0.40% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.51% · Δ 30m +0.08% · px 205.87 (prev 202.81) → close -1.26% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.46% · Δ 30m -0.06% · px 404.20 (prev 398.37) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.