Mon Aug-31 20:01:30
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2187 Fri Aug-07 19:50:37
Why Bad Jobs News is Good News for Equities
The July 2026 US nonfarm payrolls missed estimates by a historic margin, which analysts interpret as bullish for equities due to expectations of increased central bank liquidity.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +8.74% | -0.73% | 157.83 | 172.32 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +5.67% | -0.31% | 29.80 | 31.38 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +3.84% | -0.33% | 161.10 | 168.30 | |
| TSLA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.41% | +0.02% | 321.30 | 333.19 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.15% | -0.64% | 477.05 | 504.28 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.72% | +0.02% | 1722.32 | 1768.17 | |
| NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.42% | +0.04% | 219.52 | 224.71 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.19% | -0.23% | 850.01 | 916.35 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.03% | +0.04% | 421.87 | 430.05 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.00% | -0.10% | 353.92 | 358.90 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.74% | -0.27% | 273.10 | 278.24 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.19% | -0.22% | 413.31 | 424.54 | |
| peer AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.16% | -0.11% | 311.38 | 314.34 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.11% | -0.28% | 587.29 | 621.38 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.10% | -0.10% | 467.18 | 504.85 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +0.65% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.