Mon Aug-31 19:05:54
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1680 Mon Aug-03 17:40:33
Wall Street's bulls are starting to admit the earnings bubble is real -- and the 60/40 portfolio may be the first casualty | Fortune
Goldman Sachs and Apollo economists warn of a potential earnings bubble in the technology sector and declare the traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy broken due to slowing AI trade momentum.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.88% | +0.01% | 472.09 | 491.29 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +7.07% | +0.48% | 562.45 | 597.04 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +5.56% | +0.31% | 361.61 | 375.97 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.83% | -0.07% | 275.80 | 286.78 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.20% | -0.71% | 310.90 | 324.21 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.09% | -0.04% | 197.69 | 208.66 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.93% | +0.01% | 124.61 | 144.72 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.88% | -0.01% | 457.76 | 495.13 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.85% | -0.30% | 143.27 | 152.20 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.68% | +0.87% | 302.90 | 311.92 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.57% | -0.03% | 1592.04 | 1654.25 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.42% | -0.25% | 390.66 | 409.80 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.35% | +0.45% | 777.38 | 840.85 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.25% | +0.03% | 376.04 | 392.45 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.25% | -0.14% | 27.75 | 28.90 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.88% · Δ 30m +0.01% · px 487.39 (prev 464.72) → close +0.21% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -1.11% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.88% · Δ 30m +0.01% · px 487.39 (prev 464.72) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.