Mon Aug-31 19:08:40
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1410 Thu Jul-30 18:12:22
Bitcoin Gains 9% in July -- Is Crypto Leading the Recovery From the AI Unwind?
AI and semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia, Alphabet, and Tesla, declined amid concerns over AI capital expenditure returns and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, while Bitcoin gained.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.91% | +0.10% | 192.16 | 197.05 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +17.43% | +1.19% | 747.00 | 910.99 | |
| peer MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +16.72% | +0.37% | 425.60 | 458.17 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +13.13% | +0.40% | 440.89 | 499.88 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -9.08% | +0.32% | 526.00 | 544.23 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +8.21% | -0.04% | 26.27 | 28.40 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +7.84% | +0.27% | 381.99 | 412.77 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +6.86% | +0.46% | 1599.38 | 1684.28 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +5.18% | -0.15% | 232.55 | 258.50 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.01% | -0.03% | 374.22 | 391.00 | |
| TSLA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.54% | +0.06% | 302.90 | 310.76 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.43% | +0.24% | 146.00 | 153.87 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.50% | +0.07% | 331.43 | 337.96 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.48% | +0.57% | 120.48 | 123.42 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.91% · Δ 30m +0.10% · px 193.64 (prev 190.01) → close +0.58% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +16.72% · Δ 30m +0.37% · px 455.82 (prev 390.54) → close -0.89% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.91% · Δ 30m +0.10% · px 193.64 (prev 190.01) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.