kingfisher — alert #1226

🚨 Alert #1226 Wed Jul-29 20:23:29

Fed keeps rates steady. The big question now: What will Microsoft and Meta say on AI capex?

cnbc.com · Wed Jul-29 20:01:09 published · Wed Jul-29 20:23:29 alerted · alerted 22m after publish · read at www.cnbc.com ↗ · earnings · mat 65

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, shifting market focus to the upcoming earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta, where AI capital expenditure guidance is expected to significantly impact semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary MSFT	· unclear	REPRICING	+1.14%	-0.74%	389.74	425.60
MU	· unclear	PRICED	-6.55%	-3.00%	708.59	835.51
SMCI	· unclear	PRICED	-5.98%	-2.00%	25.22	28.35
AMD	· unclear	PRICED	-2.50%	-1.42%	420.63	458.46
TSM	· unclear	PRICED	-2.06%	-1.15%	368.30	390.77
peer GOOGL	· unclear	REPRICING	+1.59%	-0.90%	329.81	342.09
NVDA	· unclear	REPRICING	-1.43%	-0.89%	188.89	197.56
PLTR	· unclear	REPRICING	+1.31%	-1.36%	120.59	126.93
TSLA	· unclear	REPRICING	-1.27%	-1.02%	293.83	308.84
AAPL	· unclear	FRESH	+0.66%	-0.38%	337.73	344.32
QCOM	· unclear	REPRICING	-0.61%	-1.15%	143.70	164.29
ASML	· unclear	REPRICING	+0.48%	-1.23%	1531.35	1613.00
META	· unclear	REPRICING	-0.09%	-1.04%	521.74	599.09
AVGO	· unclear	REPRICING	+0.01%	-0.84%	364.85	384.61
AMZN	· unclear	REPRICING	0.00%	-0.71%	224.70	232.52

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	MSFT	○ skip	—	direction unclear for MSFT → close -1.68%
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	GOOGL	○ skip	—	direction unclear for GOOGL → close -0.86%
S4	MSFT	○ skip	—	direction unclear for MSFT

📈 Trades

no trades spawned

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.