Mon Aug-31 20:01:18
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #119 Fri Jul-17 16:30:08
TSM Q2 Earnings Call Highlights AI Capacity Push, Margin Focus
TSMC reported Q2 2026 earnings that beat estimates and raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to over 40% driven by strong AI demand and increased capital spending.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.90% | -0.21% | 387.71 | 403.82 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -5.20% | +0.53% | 626.66 | 655.30 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.88% | +0.02% | 462.12 | 505.29 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.61% | -0.50% | 165.27 | 172.45 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.53% | +0.29% | 23.40 | 25.16 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.49% | -0.24% | 389.60 | 396.89 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.03% | +0.52% | 334.74 | 350.26 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.95% | +0.34% | 1709.45 | 1787.74 | |
| counterparty NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.64% | +0.45% | 198.60 | 206.45 | |
| peer AVGO | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.46% | +0.01% | 358.73 | 376.80 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.47% | -0.08% | 244.00 | 249.74 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.47% | +0.17% | 808.10 | 902.11 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.43% | +0.48% | 329.44 | 334.81 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.90% · Δ 30m -0.21% · px 397.85 (prev 409.74) → close +0.11% |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.64% · Δ 30m +0.45% · px 203.99 (prev 207.40) → close -0.25% |
| S3 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.46% · Δ 30m +0.01% · px 368.99 (prev 374.45) → close +0.74% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported Q2 2026 earnings that beat estimates and raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to over 40% driven by strong AI demand and increased capital spending.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted buy but open S4 sell TSM exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.