Mon Aug-31 19:04:49
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1017 Tue Jul-28 15:51:41
Will New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Shock the Market and Deliver a Surprise Rate Hike at the Fed's July Meeting?
The Federal Reserve's July meeting is underway with speculation regarding a potential surprise rate hike under new Chair Kevin Warsh, creating uncertainty for equity markets.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -8.65% | +3.96% | 774.65 | 848.99 | |
| PLTR | · unclear | PRICED | -8.43% | +1.18% | 117.98 | 128.50 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -8.23% | +2.29% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | PRICED | -5.97% | +2.73% | 27.27 | 28.69 | |
| ASML | · unclear | PRICED | -4.65% | +1.45% | 1555.72 | 1598.06 | |
| TSM | · unclear | PRICED | -2.79% | +1.43% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| MSFT | · unclear | PRICED | +2.17% | +0.15% | 391.72 | 399.95 | |
| TSLA | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.53% | +0.96% | 301.59 | 309.83 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.40% | +1.42% | 162.26 | 167.70 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.99% | -0.54% | 228.16 | 234.02 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.99% | +1.33% | 360.53 | 385.19 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.60% | +0.33% | 325.28 | 335.89 | |
| peer AAPL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.39% | +0.23% | 335.94 | 341.25 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.38% | +2.09% | 193.21 | 198.53 | |
| META | · unclear | FRESH | -0.18% | -0.24% | 587.04 | 600.38 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AAPL → close +0.48% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.