🚨 Alert #986 Tue Jul-28 14:33:28
Apple unveiled a revamped Siri AI and a new smart home hardware lineup including a Home Hub, Apple TV 4K, and HomePod models at WWDC26.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (product: Apple unveiled a revamped Siri AI and a new smart home hardware lineup including a Home Hub, Apple TV 4K, and HomePod models at WWDC26.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 short AAPL decision 3969] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close -0.22% |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AAPL at close, exit next close (product: Apple unveiled a revamped Siri AI and a new smart home hardware lineup including a Home Hub, Apple TV 4K, and HomePod models at WWDC26.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 4376) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-07-29] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ▲ long | 2 | 339.58 | 337.62 | -3.92 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S1 | +0.11% | -0.61% | Signal: Wrong. The bullish call never materialized — the stock topped out at +0.11% unrealized and drifted down to -0.61%, so there was essentially no upside to capture even with perfect execution. Timing: Entry came after a +0.96% move off the prior close, so the WWDC-driven pop was largely already in the price — consistent with the news being stale despite the FRESH verdict. Exit: The close (-0.58%) landed near the worst unrealized (-0.61%), but exit quality is nearly moot given the +0.11% ceiling; note the exit was forced by netting against an opposing short signal, not by the strategy's own exit logic, and the data doesn't show what happened after close. Dominant factor: bad signal — the predicted direction was simply wrong, likely because the move had already happened by entry. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.