Mon Aug-31 19:03:23
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #981 Tue Jul-28 14:12:55
Paper plant smokestack damaged after M7.1 quake hits southwestern Japan
A magnitude 7.1 earthquake in southwestern Japan forced TSMC to evacuate its Kumamoto facility, raising concerns about potential supply chain disruptions for the semiconductor industry.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.53% | +0.29% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -10.16% | +0.45% | 1555.72 | 1598.06 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.85% | +0.16% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.04% | +0.59% | 774.65 | 848.99 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.24% | +0.02% | 193.21 | 198.53 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.88% | +0.04% | 27.27 | 28.69 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.37% | -0.40% | 391.72 | 399.95 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.35% | -0.27% | 325.28 | 335.89 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.92% | +0.01% | 335.94 | 341.25 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.45% | +0.05% | 360.53 | 385.19 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.67% | -0.08% | 587.04 | 600.38 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.43% | +0.20% | 162.26 | 167.70 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.33% | -0.21% | 228.16 | 234.02 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.53% · Δ 30m +0.29% · px 385.12 (prev 403.41) → close +2.32% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -5.24% · Δ 30m +0.02% · px 196.00 (prev 206.84) → close +0.86% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.53% · Δ 30m +0.29% · px 385.12 (prev 403.41) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.