🚨 Alert #95 Fri Jul-17 15:20:21
India's smartphone shipments fell 10% in Q2 2026 due to a severe DRAM and NAND memory shortage that quadrupled component costs and forced significant price hikes.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.13% · Δ 30m +6.17% · px 871.35 (prev 853.20) → close -1.94% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> sell AAPL (other: India's smartphone shipments fell 10% in Q2 2026 due to a severe DRAM and NAND memory shortage that quadrupled component costs and forced significant price hikes.) |
| S4 | MU | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy MU at close, exit next close (other: India's smartphone shipments fell 10% in Q2 2026 due to a severe DRAM and NAND memory shortage that quadrupled component costs and forced significant price hikes.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy MU exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | AAPL | ▼ short | 3 | 330.62 | 333.88 | -9.78 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S3 | +0.41% | -1.28% | Rationale vs. outcome: The entry treated a macro/regional headline (India Q2 shipments, memory cost inflation) as an AAPL-specific repricing event, but India is a single-digit percentage of Apple's revenue and component shortages hit Android OEMs harder — so the stock never confirmed the thesis, spending most of the trade underwater (-1.28% max adverse vs. only +0.41% favorable) before closing at a loss. Improvement: Tighten the REPRICING verdict to require the catalyst to name the ticker directly or demonstrably touch a material revenue segment (e.g., >10% of sales); indirect supply-chain or regional-market news should downgrade to WATCH/no-trade rather than trigger a directional entry. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.