🚨 Alert #94 Fri Jul-17 15:20:21
TSMC reports no development obstacles for its 1.4nm node with risk production scheduled for 2027, signaling continued technological leadership in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.04% | +2.75% | 387.71 | 403.82 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.88% | +6.36% | 462.12 | 505.29 | |
| counterparty AAPL | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.90% | -0.84% | 329.44 | 334.81 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.86% | +3.23% | 198.60 | 206.45 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.56% | +1.20% | 165.27 | 172.45 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.49% | +3.42% | 358.73 | 376.80 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.04% · Δ 30m +2.75% · px 401.39 (prev 409.74) → close -0.77% |
| S2 | AAPL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy AAPL (product: TSMC reports no development obstacles for its 1.4nm node with risk production scheduled for 2027, signaling continued technological leadership in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.) |
| S3 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy NVDA (product: TSMC reports no development obstacles for its 1.4nm node with risk production scheduled for 2027, signaling continued technological leadership in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.) |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy TSM at close, exit next close (product: TSMC reports no development obstacles for its 1.4nm node with risk production scheduled for 2027, signaling continued technological leadership in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted buy but open S4 sell TSM exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S2 | AAPL | ▲ long | 3 | 330.32 | 333.84 | +10.56 | closed |
| S3 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 204.70 | 203.48 | -4.88 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S2 | +1.37% | -0.32% | Rationale vs. outcome: The thesis is weak — TSMC's 1.4nm node hitting risk production in 2027 is a second-order, multi-year-out positive for a supplier, not a near-term repricing catalyst for AAPL. The +$10.56 gain (≈+1.1%) with a max excursion of only +1.37%/-0.32% looks like ordinary daily drift, so this was a win on noise, not thesis confirmation. Improvement: Tighten the REPRICING verdict to require the catalyst to (a) directly concern the traded ticker (here, trade TSM, not AAPL) and (b) have an impact horizon inside your holding period — news about 2027 production schedules should be downgraded to NO_TRADE or a "monitor" bucket rather than triggering an entry. |
| NVDA S3 | +0.91% | -1.46% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale is weak second-order inference — a TSMC 1.4nm roadmap update with 2027 risk production is neither new information nor NVDA-specific, so calling it a "REPRICING" catalyst was a stretch, and the market agreed: price barely moved (+0.91%/-1.46% range) before drifting to a small loss. Improvement: Tighten the REPRICING verdict to require the news be (a) directly about the traded ticker or a quantifiable supplier/customer with near-term revenue impact, and (b) genuinely incremental (surprise vs. consensus), not a reiteration of an existing multi-year roadmap. A simple filter — "would this headline move the stock >1% on its own?" — would have rejected this trade. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.