verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short TSM (regulatory: China has defined semiconductor and AI restrictions as a red line ahead of President Xi's U.S. visit, raising risks for the global tech supply chain.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short TSM exiting 2026-09-23] → close -0.11%
overnight drift: short TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: China has defined semiconductor and AI restrictions as a red line ahead of President Xi's U.S. visit, raising risks for the global tech supply chain.)
Signal: Directionally right at some point — the short saw +1.99% unrealized profit, so the predicted downside did materialize while the trade was open. Timing: Entry came after TSM had already fallen 1.05% from prior close, so part of the move was pre-captured, but the subsequent +1.99% favorable excursion shows meaningful downside remained. Exit: This is the dominant factor — the mechanical next-close exit gave back the entire ~2% favorable move and closed near the worst unrealized level (-1.21%), turning an available winner into a -0.76% loss (-$6.82). Note the data doesn't show when the favorable move occurred within the holding window, only that the fixed-time exit failed to capture it.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
