🚨 Alert #5269 Wed Sep-23 13:31:00
Geopolitical tensions regarding US arms sales to Taiwan are expected to dominate the upcoming Xi-Trump summit, raising risks for cross-strait relations and the semiconductor supply chain.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.08% | -0.09% | 443.04 | 450.69 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.12% | -0.13% | 1705.58 | 1750.00 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.07% | -0.08% | 354.13 | 362.66 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.99% | -0.03% | 193.74 | 199.52 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.93% | -0.03% | 466.25 | 507.84 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.88% | -0.12% | 608.91 | 622.74 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.76% | +0.20% | 1065.69 | 1100.38 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.45% | -0.03% | 224.14 | 229.10 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.30% | +0.03% | 335.87 | 343.40 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.20% | -0.28% | 236.79 | 256.08 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.19% | -0.15% | 330.68 | 352.68 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.11% | -0.23% | 732.50 | 759.51 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short TSM (regulatory: Geopolitical tensions regarding US arms sales to Taiwan are expected to dominate the upcoming Xi-Trump summit, raising risks for cross-strait relations and the semiconductor supply chain.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -1.30% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: Geopolitical tensions regarding US arms sales to Taiwan are expected to dominate the upcoming Xi-Trump summit, raising risks for cross-strait relations and the semiconductor supply chain.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 75 short (decision 21212) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-09-24] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▼ short | 2 | 450.07 | 446.96 | +6.22 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +1.52% | -0.14% | Signal: correct. The bearish call worked — TSM fell after entry and the worst unrealized drawdown was only -0.14%, so the short was almost never underwater. Timing: mostly fine. About 1% of the decline had already occurred by entry (prev close 451.88 vs entry 450.07), but the bulk of the captured move happened after the fill, so entry wasn't chasing a spent move. Exit: the dominant weakness. The trade realized +0.69% (+$6.22) against a best unrealized of +1.52% — the exit gave back roughly half the available gain. Whether that was a rule-driven exit or the peak was fleeting isn't determinable from this data, but the gap between realized and best unrealized is the standout fact. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.