Mon Aug-31 20:09:13
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #50 Fri Jul-17 13:30:24
Taiwan computer chipmaker TSMC pledges another $100 billion to expand U.S. chipmaking capacity
TSMC announced an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. chipmaking capacity and raised its annual revenue forecast and capital expenditure budget due to strong AI demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -5.84% | -0.50% | 387.71 | 403.82 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -10.52% | -0.67% | 23.40 | 25.16 | |
| peer AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -9.00% | -0.80% | 462.12 | 505.29 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -8.66% | -0.98% | 808.10 | 902.11 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -7.29% | -0.66% | 358.73 | 376.80 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -6.96% | -0.49% | 165.27 | 172.45 | |
| counterparty NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -5.02% | -0.30% | 198.60 | 206.45 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -3.74% | -0.72% | 1709.45 | 1787.74 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.72% | +0.02% | 329.44 | 334.81 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -5.84% · Δ 30m -0.50% · px 395.00 (prev 419.48) → close +0.83% |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -5.02% · Δ 30m -0.30% · px 201.83 (prev 212.50) → close +0.82% |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -9.00% · Δ 30m -0.80% · px 481.53 (prev 529.14) → close +3.46% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy TSM at close, exit next close (guidance: TSMC announced an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. chipmaking capacity and raised its annual revenue forecast and capital expenditure budget due to strong AI demand.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted buy but open S4 sell TSM exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.