Sun Oct-18 15:17:06
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #4661 Tue Sep-15 14:28:51
Sam Altman’s AI Nightmare Splits ETF Trade: Build Vs. Control
Warnings from AI leaders about safety risks and the need to pace development triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, AMD, Micron, and Broadcom.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.93% | +0.15% | 211.30 | 213.58 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.73% | -0.36% | 1578.29 | 1628.79 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.23% | +0.24% | 169.99 | 176.44 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.19% | -0.06% | 495.39 | 511.79 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.07% | -0.16% | 921.60 | 940.99 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.80% | -0.01% | 342.92 | 347.21 | |
| peer MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.76% | +0.16% | 495.79 | 504.94 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.62% | +0.15% | 412.83 | 421.74 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.49% | -0.17% | 658.00 | 678.03 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.41% | -0.09% | 338.11 | 346.83 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.34% | -0.03% | 247.67 | 253.24 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.27% | -0.29% | 179.36 | 189.83 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.14% | -0.48% | 35.61 | 37.47 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (other: Warnings from AI leaders about safety risks and the need to pace development triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, AMD, Micron, and Broadcom.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long NVDA, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -0.34% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.90% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short NVDA at close, exit next close (other: Warnings from AI leaders about safety risks and the need to pace development triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, AMD, Micron, and Broadcom.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 95 long (decision 18532) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-09-16] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.