Mon Aug-31 19:01:46
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #413 Tue Jul-21 21:12:00
HBM4 and Fab Limits Prevent 1,000 Vera Rubin Racks Per Day in 2026 or 2027
Nvidia outlined aspirational production targets for its Vera Rubin AI platform, highlighting supply chain dependencies on TSMC and HBM4 while naming major cloud partners like Google and Microsoft.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.80% | -0.06% | 204.23 | 207.50 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +12.42% | +0.44% | 914.00 | 987.52 | |
| peer AMD | · unclear | PRICED | +8.15% | +0.52% | 522.30 | 546.54 | |
| counterparty TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +5.64% | +0.33% | 414.22 | 426.19 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +3.71% | -0.06% | 1787.97 | 1822.19 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.94% | -0.20% | 380.86 | 390.09 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.25% | -0.45% | 347.15 | 354.65 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.13% | -0.31% | 395.85 | 401.03 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.80% · Δ 30m -0.06% · px 206.93 (prev 203.28) → close +0.25% |
| S2 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +5.64% · Δ 30m +0.33% · px 424.99 (prev 402.30) → close -0.05% |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close -0.07% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.80% · Δ 30m -0.06% · px 206.93 (prev 203.28) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.