🚨 Alert #3834 Wed Sep-02 13:21:21
The Trump administration is developing a semiconductor tariff framework that would impose import duties on chips unless manufacturers build production capacity in the United States.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.49% | +0.37% | 408.80 | 416.35 | |
| AMD | · unclear | FRESH | -0.53% | +0.40% | 453.18 | 462.14 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.43% | +0.12% | 323.60 | 326.99 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.41% | +0.25% | 333.77 | 339.61 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.38% | +0.57% | 216.34 | 227.58 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.31% | +0.20% | 493.95 | 500.48 | |
| peer MU | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.24% | +0.56% | 920.00 | 957.10 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | +0.20% | +0.47% | 348.79 | 375.22 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.19% | +0.44% | 164.67 | 170.39 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.13% | +0.12% | 574.21 | 598.88 | |
| ASML | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.06% | +0.55% | 1652.15 | 1687.82 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.04% | +0.32% | 253.03 | 256.46 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSM (regulatory: The Trump administration is developing a semiconductor tariff framework that would impose import duties on chips unless manufacturers build production capacity in the United States.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S2 long TSM decision 15410] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MU | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MU → close +2.78% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: The Trump administration is developing a semiconductor tariff framework that would impose import duties on chips unless manufacturers build production capacity in the United States.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 75 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 15504) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-09-03] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▼ short | 2 | 412.63 | 413.27 | -1.28 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.24% | -0.72% | Signal: Wrong over the holding window — the short saw only +0.24% of favorable movement against -0.72% adverse, and the price drifted up; whether the tariff thesis plays out longer-term isn't testable from this data since the position was closed early for administrative reasons (netted out against a conflicting long decision), not on the merits. Timing: Entry wasn't chasing a move — price was only -0.49% off the prior close and had ticked up +0.37% in the last 30 minutes, so the trade didn't enter after the predicted decline had already occurred. Exit: The -1.28 loss (-0.16%) sits between the +0.24% best and -0.72% worst, so the exit neither captured the small available gain nor took the full drawdown; the dominant factor is that the trade was terminated by an unrelated netting rule against an opposing signal, so this outcome reflects portfolio bookkeeping more than a verdict on the bearish thesis itself. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.