Sun Oct-18 16:26:36
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3421 Thu Aug-27 13:12:52
The White House's preferred economic tools are hitting snags
The Trump administration's export control regime is facing significant operational bottlenecks with license approvals taking over a year, creating uncertainty for US technology exporters.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +6.07% | +0.05% | 221.72 | 230.45 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.01% | -0.06% | 908.33 | 979.50 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.37% | +0.01% | 421.86 | 451.39 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.31% | +0.02% | 470.37 | 489.20 | |
| peer AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.24% | -0.15% | 359.20 | 374.18 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.03% | +0.05% | 1722.10 | 1770.19 | |
| AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.93% | +0.02% | 309.49 | 315.23 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.93% | +0.15% | 162.13 | 165.58 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.73% | +0.11% | 491.10 | 505.92 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.42% | -0.02% | 339.19 | 355.25 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.35% | +0.02% | 568.89 | 586.57 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.17% | +0.09% | 255.10 | 260.10 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +6.07% · Δ 30m +0.05% · px 222.38 (prev 209.66) → close +2.57% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | inferred short contradicts tape: AVGO +1.24% since prev close → close +2.82% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +6.07% · Δ 30m +0.05% · px 222.38 (prev 209.66) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.