Mon Aug-31 20:11:32
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3125 Mon Aug-24 14:40:50
Iran Sanctions Launch Into Nvidia Week: Oil Shock Tests AI Stock Multiples
New Iran sanctions and rising Treasury yields create a hostile macroeconomic environment for Nvidia's upcoming earnings report by increasing discount rates for AI stocks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.14% | -1.35% | 208.18 | 215.45 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -6.23% | -2.64% | 888.00 | 941.45 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | PRICED | -4.30% | -1.68% | 34.15 | 36.55 | |
| PLTR | · unclear | PRICED | -3.69% | -2.58% | 171.91 | 179.30 | |
| peer AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -3.38% | -1.56% | 452.68 | 468.25 | |
| TSM | · unclear | PRICED | -2.22% | -1.59% | 405.51 | 417.82 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.75% | -0.51% | 358.35 | 366.57 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.57% | -0.62% | 156.50 | 159.84 | |
| ASML | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.54% | -0.79% | 1729.07 | 1762.59 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.20% | +1.17% | 257.95 | 263.18 | |
| MSFT | · unclear | FRESH | +0.40% | +0.42% | 482.70 | 490.04 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.30% | +0.84% | 342.89 | 351.39 | |
| META | · unclear | FRESH | +0.25% | +0.01% | 548.04 | 561.27 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short NVDA (earnings: New Iran sanctions and rising Treasury yields create a hostile macroeconomic environment for Nvidia's upcoming earnings report by increasing discount rates for AI stocks.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 85 ties incumbent S1 long NVDA, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -1.83% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close -0.35% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short NVDA at close, exit next close (earnings: New Iran sanctions and rising Treasury yields create a hostile macroeconomic environment for Nvidia's upcoming earnings report by increasing discount rates for AI stocks.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted short, verdict now PRICED (-2.96% since close, 374m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.