🚨 Alert #3057 Fri Aug-21 18:10:36
TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $60-64 billion and announced a significant dividend increase, signaling strong confidence in sustained demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.47% | +0.03% | 417.05 | 423.98 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.39% | -0.03% | 341.47 | 346.07 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.23% | +0.02% | 533.74 | 553.75 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.07% | -0.36% | 959.33 | 988.00 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.69% | -0.31% | 365.20 | 373.98 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.68% | +0.16% | 468.39 | 485.87 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.62% | -0.05% | 214.72 | 218.48 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.36% | +0.04% | 257.39 | 262.04 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.30% | +0.10% | 1742.38 | 1771.53 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.07% | -0.09% | 463.05 | 475.79 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.06% | +0.26% | 307.18 | 312.35 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.06% | +0.25% | 159.40 | 162.85 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (guidance: TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $60-64 billion and announced a significant dividend increase, signaling strong confidence in sustained demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (guidance: TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $60-64 billion and announced a significant dividend increase, signaling strong confidence in sustained demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long NVDA exiting 2026-08-21] → close -0.32% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (guidance: TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $60-64 billion and announced a significant dividend increase, signaling strong confidence in sustained demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 418.03 | 418.40 | +0.74 | closed |
| S4 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 418.60 | 409.40 | -18.40 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.44% | -0.15% | Signal: Directionally right — price drifted up after entry, and the worst drawdown was only -0.15%, so the bullish call wasn't wrong. Timing: The stock was up just +0.47% from prev close with essentially no momentum in the last 30 minutes, so entry wasn't chasing a spent move; however, whether the news itself was already priced in earlier can't be determined from this data. Exit: This is the dominant factor — the trade banked +0.09% (+$0.74) against a best unrealized of +0.44%, capturing only about a fifth of what was available; a correct but modest signal was mostly given back by the exit. |
| TSM S4 | +0.45% | -3.18% | Signal: Wrong. The rationale predicted upward drift on bullish capex/dividend news, but TSM fell ~2.2% from entry to exit — the direction call failed outright. Timing: The stock was only +0.47% above prev close at decision time and entry was ~0.6% above prev close, so the anticipated move had not already happened; there's no evidence of chasing a spent move here. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit at -2.2% gave back nothing meaningful — max favorable was only +0.45%, so at best a small gain was available, and the exit landed near (though above) the -3.18% worst. The dominant factor is bluntly a bad signal: the news-based long thesis was simply wrong for this holding window, not a timing or exit-execution problem. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.