verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (other: Samsung is reportedly raising advanced foundry prices by up to 15% amid strong AI chip demand, following similar pricing considerations by TSMC.)
overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (other: Samsung is reportedly raising advanced foundry prices by up to 15% amid strong AI chip demand, following similar pricing considerations by TSMC.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 11528) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-08-20]
Signal: wrong. The bullish call never materialized — the position was up at most +0.07% while open, so there was essentially nothing favorable to capture. Timing: suspect. Decision-time context showed TSM roughly flat (+0.06% vs prev close of 413.37), yet the fill came at 417.99, ~1.1% higher — the entry chased a spike that occurred between decision and fill, and the data here can't settle whether the news itself was already priced in before that. Exit: acceptable given the loser — realized -1.13% sits between the +0.07% best and -2.35% worst, so the exit cut losses roughly halfway off the bottom rather than riding it down.
Dominant factor: bad signal (direction simply wrong over the holding window), compounded by an adverse entry fill well above the decision-time price.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
