Mon Aug-31 20:11:02
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2513 Thu Aug-13 13:30:10
Nvidia GPU rentals become a tradable commodity on 5 October
CME Group plans to launch futures contracts for Nvidia H100 and Blackwell B200 GPU rentals on October 5, establishing a public reference price for AI compute capacity.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.24% | -0.09% | 223.32 | 226.38 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.28% | -0.39% | 37.88 | 42.17 | |
| ASML | · unclear | FRESH | +0.71% | +0.12% | 1815.93 | 1873.20 | |
| TSLA | · unclear | FRESH | -0.65% | -0.26% | 324.90 | 343.01 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.57% | +0.11% | 344.26 | 347.51 | |
| MSFT | · unclear | FRESH | +0.39% | +0.20% | 483.01 | 501.05 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.33% | -0.13% | 162.29 | 166.40 | |
| META | · unclear | FRESH | +0.33% | -0.02% | 579.88 | 595.53 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | FRESH | +0.27% | +0.15% | 264.90 | 269.47 | |
| peer AMD | · unclear | FRESH | -0.21% | 0.00% | 479.93 | 496.14 | |
| MU | · unclear | FRESH | -0.15% | -0.05% | 904.07 | 976.24 | |
| PLTR | · unclear | FRESH | +0.14% | +0.17% | 170.83 | 179.77 | |
| TSM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.13% | +0.05% | 427.41 | 435.65 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | -0.06% | +0.06% | 414.96 | 424.38 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (product: CME Group plans to launch futures contracts for Nvidia H100 and Blackwell B200 GPU rentals on October 5, establishing a public reference price for AI compute capacity.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, netted, outranked by S3 short NVDA mat 85 (new mat 65)] → close +0.81% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close +0.10% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (product: CME Group plans to launch futures contracts for Nvidia H100 and Blackwell B200 GPU rentals on October 5, establishing a public reference price for AI compute capacity.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 10308) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-08-14] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.