Mon Aug-31 19:06:47
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2294 Mon Aug-10 18:30:32
AI demand has TSMC running a tight chip
TSMC reported a 45% year-over-year increase in July sales, exceeding its annual growth forecast and signaling sustained strong demand for AI chips.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.50% | +0.06% | 417.84 | 425.04 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.45% | -0.02% | 162.12 | 169.26 | |
| counterparty NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.40% | +0.49% | 217.00 | 224.91 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.21% | +0.05% | 305.28 | 310.13 | |
| peer AMD | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.74% | -0.02% | 469.22 | 483.00 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.09% | +0.31% | 420.62 | 432.43 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.52% | +0.21% | 1733.02 | 1797.71 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.47% | +0.46% | 858.82 | 891.70 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.11% | +0.06% | 353.59 | 357.73 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (other: TSMC reported a 45% year-over-year increase in July sales, exceeding its annual growth forecast and signaling sustained strong demand for AI chips.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long TSM exiting 2026-08-10] → close -0.46% |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.40% · Δ 30m +0.49% · px 218.60 (prev 223.96) → close -0.48% |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | inferred long contradicts tape: AMD -1.74% since prev close → close -0.79% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (other: TSMC reported a 45% year-over-year increase in July sales, exceeding its annual growth forecast and signaling sustained strong demand for AI chips.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 9196) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-08-11] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.