🚨 Alert #19 Wed Jul-15 18:20:28

The entry rationale correctly identified a real bearish catalyst (10% drop, sector-wide AI capex fears), but the trade was entered after the move already happened—shorting at 902.43 into a bounce that ran to +0.76% favorable before reversing to a -1.47% drawdown and eventually stopping out for a small loss, meaning the "repricing" was already stale by the time the mechanical system acted. Concrete fix: add a freshness/momentum filter to the REPRICING verdict that requires entry within a defined window of the catalyst (e.g., same session, before a bounce retraces >30% of the initial move) or require price to be making new lows relative to the selloff at entry, rather than shorting into what may already be a dead-cat bounce.

The entry rationale leaned on Micron's selloff as a proxy for chip-sector weakness, but TSM never confirmed that bearish thesis—it drifted up 0.61% against the position, hitting -0.91% unrealized before the stop closed it for a small loss. This is a correlation-not-causation error: the "FRESH" verdict fired on sympathy news rather than TSM-specific signal, so tighten the entry rule to require confirming price action or volume in the actual traded ticker (not just sector-peer news) before greenlighting a bearish verdict.

The entry rationale correctly rode a sector-wide selloff (AI capex/macro fears) and the short overnight drift captured a solid +5.6% move with pnl of +$50.61, so the mechanical bias-following logic worked here—but the "verdict" was really just a lucky continuation of an already-10%-down day, not a genuine edge signal, and the +7.04% best-case vs. -0.27% worst-case shows you left significant profit on the table by holding to next close rather than trailing/locking gains. Concrete improvement: add a rule to scale out or tighten a trailing stop once unrealized gain exceeds ~3-4%, rather than holding a fixed overnight-to-close exit, so the strategy captures more of favorable intraday swings instead of giving back gains on mean-reversion bounces.