🚨 Alert #18 Wed Jul-15 18:20:28
TSMC reported record June and Q2 revenue driven by strong AI chip demand, with Q3 net profit and revenue also beating estimates and CEO C.C. Wei affirming AI demand remains stronger than expected.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.59% | +0.49% | 411.20 | 427.37 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -8.43% | +0.92% | 878.80 | 981.05 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -4.34% | +1.49% | 511.68 | 558.83 | |
| AAPL | · unclear | PRICED | +3.73% | -0.42% | 316.25 | 328.58 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.30% | +0.94% | 206.28 | 213.36 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.85% | +0.91% | 387.14 | 397.50 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.61% | +1.50% | 1739.15 | 1843.61 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.31% | +0.77% | 174.89 | 180.15 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy TSM (earnings: TSMC reported record June and Q2 revenue driven by strong AI chip demand, with Q3 net profit and revenue also beating estimates and CEO C.C. Wei affirming AI demand remains stronger than expected.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy NVDA (earnings: TSMC reported record June and Q2 revenue driven by strong AI chip demand, with Q3 net profit and revenue also beating estimates and CEO C.C. Wei affirming AI demand remains stronger than expected.) |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: buy TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported record June and Q2 revenue driven by strong AI chip demand, with Q3 net profit and revenue also beating estimates and CEO C.C. Wei affirming AI demand remains stronger than expected.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 418.05 | 420.59 | +5.08 | closed |
| S3 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 208.96 | 212.45 | +13.96 | closed |
| S4 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 420.47 | 409.66 | -21.62 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.92% | -0.15% | The entry thesis (AI-driven beat-and-raise) was directionally correct—price never even touched worst-case drawdown beyond -0.15%, and it ran to +0.92% before you closed for a token +5.08 on 2 shares—so this was a case of catching the right trend and then leaving almost all the meat on the table. The "FRESH" verdict correctly identified bullish momentum but the exit/verdict logic clearly has no trailing-stop or profit-extension rule, converting a near-1% move into a 0.3% realized gain; add a trailing stop (e.g., exit only after price retraces 25-30% from peak unrealized gain) instead of whatever fixed/time-based exit triggered this close. |
| NVDA S3 | +1.68% | -0.11% | The entry rationale leaned entirely on TSMC's AI-demand commentary as a proxy for NVDA strength, treating it as a "repricing" catalyst—yet the trade barely moved (+1.68% best case, essentially flat worst case) and closed for a modest +1.67% gain, suggesting the "repricing" verdict overstated the magnitude/urgency of the catalyst rather than reflecting a genuine dislocation. Blunt take: this wasn't a repricing event, it was noise dressed up as one—TSMC beats are lagging/correlated info already priced into NVDA, not a fresh catalyst. Improvement: require the REPRICING verdict to be gated on NVDA-specific news (guidance, analyst revisions, options flow) rather than a supplier's earnings call, or add a minimum expected-move threshold (e.g., implied move >3%) before triggering the trade. |
| TSM S4 | +0.93% | -5.40% | The entry rationale bet on an "AI demand beat" narrative driving overnight drift, but the trade lost 2.57% while the max favorable excursion was only +0.93%—meaning the news was likely already priced in at the close, and the position never confirmed direction before bleeding out to a -5.4% drawdown. Fix: require a minimum intraday momentum/volume confirmation after the news print before entering (don't buy blind at close on stale earnings headlines), and add a hard stop-loss rule (e.g., exit if unrealized loss exceeds 2%) instead of holding to next close regardless of drawdown. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.