Mon Aug-31 20:13:43
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1512 Fri Jul-31 13:53:01
America's AI Buildout Depends on the Hardware Its Trade Policy Is About to Target
Proposed semiconductor tariffs threaten to significantly increase AI data center construction costs for major US tech firms by disrupting global supply chains for critical hardware and minerals.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.47% | -0.19% | 195.33 | 201.78 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +22.33% | -0.57% | 812.48 | 926.39 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +16.74% | -0.23% | 472.12 | 514.65 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +15.29% | +0.16% | 447.95 | 465.86 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +14.90% | -0.18% | 259.40 | 272.46 | |
| counterparty TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +11.16% | -0.30% | 399.15 | 421.17 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +10.23% | -0.21% | 27.36 | 28.78 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +7.86% | -0.30% | 1622.50 | 1691.03 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -7.23% | -0.18% | 540.82 | 557.98 | |
| peer AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +5.41% | -0.33% | 380.52 | 397.37 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.24% | -0.62% | 146.24 | 155.18 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.19% | -0.07% | 119.91 | 123.66 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.13% | -0.15% | 337.16 | 357.61 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.47% · Δ 30m -0.19% · px 196.61 (prev 190.01) → close +2.62% |
| S2 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +11.16% · Δ 30m -0.30% · px 416.50 (prev 374.67) → close -2.63% |
| S3 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +5.41% · Δ 30m -0.33% · px 390.35 (prev 370.32) → close -0.05% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.47% · Δ 30m -0.19% · px 196.61 (prev 190.01) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.