Mon Aug-31 19:05:02
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1072 Tue Jul-28 19:32:11
Sam Altman warns of potential compute oversupply within 2 years
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warned that a compute oversupply could emerge within two to three years, potentially undermining the economics of current AI infrastructure investments by major tech companies.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.18% | -0.39% | 391.72 | 399.95 | |
| peer AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -7.93% | -0.54% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.31% | -0.96% | 117.98 | 128.50 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.32% | -0.36% | 27.27 | 28.69 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.49% | +0.27% | 1555.72 | 1598.06 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.54% | -0.28% | 325.28 | 335.89 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.05% | +0.30% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.99% | 0.00% | 360.53 | 385.19 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.16% | -0.14% | 193.21 | 198.53 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.11% | +0.01% | 587.04 | 600.38 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.08% | -0.17% | 228.16 | 234.02 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.18% · Δ 30m -0.39% · px 397.59 (prev 389.10) → close -1.15% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -7.93% · Δ 30m -0.54% · px 455.73 (prev 494.95) → close +0.05% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.18% · Δ 30m -0.39% · px 397.59 (prev 389.10) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.