verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy AAPL (earnings: Apple reported fiscal Q2 2026 earnings that beat expectations with record revenue of $111.2 billion and a 22% increase in iPhone sales.)
overnight drift: buy AAPL at close, exit next close (earnings: Apple reported fiscal Q2 2026 earnings that beat expectations with record revenue of $111.2 billion and a 22% increase in iPhone sales.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy AAPL exiting 2026-07-20]
The rationale claimed a REPRICING event, but the price action never validated it — a +0.35% exit with a worse max drawdown (-0.97%) than max gain (+0.71%) means the "record earnings" were almost certainly already priced in, and you bought into a fully-digested headline. A genuine repricing should show immediate directional follow-through; this trade showed chop. Concrete fix: gate the REPRICING verdict on a confirmation filter — e.g., require the stock to be gapping/trading at least +1.5–2% (or beyond its implied earnings move) in the thesis direction before entry, otherwise downgrade the verdict to PRICED-IN and skip the trade.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
