🚨 Alert #83 Fri Jul-17 14:50:05
Apple has surpassed Nvidia to become the world's largest company by market capitalization following a decline in Nvidia shares and a slight rise in Apple stock.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy AAPL (other: Apple has surpassed Nvidia to become the world's largest company by market capitalization following a decline in Nvidia shares and a slight rise in Apple stock.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy AAPL at close, exit next close (other: Apple has surpassed Nvidia to become the world's largest company by market capitalization following a decline in Nvidia shares and a slight rise in Apple stock.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy AAPL exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ▲ long | 3 | 332.16 | 333.87 | +5.13 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S1 | +0.81% | -0.92% | Retrospective: The entry rationale was a market-cap ranking headline — pure narrative with zero forward-looking edge, and the fact that AAPL's move came partly from Nvidia falling makes it even weaker as a bullish signal. The trade eked out +0.51% but drawdown (-0.92%) exceeded the peak gain (+0.81%), so this was closer to noise than thesis confirmation; you got paid by luck, not by the rule. Improvement: Tighten the FRESH verdict to require news with a causal, company-specific catalyst (earnings, guidance, product, regulatory) rather than relative-ranking or "milestone" headlines, which are lagging indicators of moves already priced in. Alternatively, add a filter rejecting entries where the headline's driver is another stock's decline rather than the target's own strength. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.