verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell AAPL (regulatory: Apple has filed a trade secrets lawsuit against OpenAI and is shifting its AI foundation models to rely on Google's Gemini technology.)
overnight drift: sell AAPL at close, exit next close (regulatory: Apple has filed a trade secrets lawsuit against OpenAI and is shifting its AI foundation models to rely on Google's Gemini technology.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted sell but open S4 buy AAPL exiting 2026-07-20]
The entry treated a single sensational headline as a fresh bearish catalyst, but the market largely shrugged — and worse, the trade actually saw +1.16% of unrealized gain that the strategy gave back entirely, exiting at a -0.28% loss. The failure here is less the thesis than the exit discipline paired with a weak entry filter: "FRESH" alone is too low a bar for a headline this extreme, which should require corroboration from a second source or a confirming price/volume move before shorting. Concrete fix: add a take-profit or trailing stop that locks in gains once unrealized P&L exceeds ~0.75–1%, since news-driven moves like this often mean-revert within the holding window.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
