Sun Oct-18 15:03:22
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #5488 Fri Sep-25 13:50:13
Michael Burry Warns Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle Could Face AI Write-Off Shock
Michael Burry warned that Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta face potential AI infrastructure asset write-downs by 2028-2029 due to excessive capital commitments relative to demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.02% | +0.15% | 497.08 | 519.22 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.74% | -0.07% | 626.27 | 641.99 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.60% | +0.14% | 1641.53 | 1757.71 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.49% | +0.19% | 41.99 | 43.60 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.32% | -0.06% | 349.64 | 356.00 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.05% | +0.10% | 195.69 | 205.77 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.01% | +0.02% | 449.25 | 456.33 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.78% | -0.17% | 747.60 | 777.82 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.36% | -0.24% | 223.35 | 226.53 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.29% | -0.27% | 247.44 | 251.44 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.19% | -0.20% | 341.70 | 346.18 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.17% | -0.11% | 189.53 | 193.75 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short MSFT (analyst: Michael Burry warned that Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta face potential AI infrastructure asset write-downs by 2028-2029 due to excessive capital commitments relative to demand.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long MSFT, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +3.74% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.01% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short MSFT at close, exit next close (analyst: Michael Burry warned that Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta face potential AI infrastructure asset write-downs by 2028-2029 due to excessive capital commitments relative to demand.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted short, verdict now PRICED (+3.72% since close, 425m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.