🚨 Alert #52 Fri Jul-17 13:40:04
Apple briefly surpassed Nvidia in market capitalization amid strong iPhone demand and a broader selloff in AI-related semiconductor stocks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.77% · Δ 30m +0.14% · px 333.30 (prev 327.50) → close +0.11% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -6.64% · Δ 30m -0.51% · px 346.31 (prev 370.92) → close +0.09% |
| S4 | AAPL | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: buy AAPL at close, exit next close (other: Apple briefly surpassed Nvidia in market capitalization amid strong iPhone demand and a broader selloff in AI-related semiconductor stocks.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | AAPL | ▲ long | 2 | 334.12 | 326.43 | -15.38 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S4 | +0.06% | -3.05% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale was a generic overnight-drift play dressed up with a news headline (market-cap milestone) that had no directional edge — Apple surpassing Nvidia amid an AI selloff is arguably a rotation signal, not a momentum one — and the trade went almost straight down (-2.3%, with max favorable excursion of only +0.06%). The news hook was already priced in at entry; buying at the close after a widely-reported milestone is buying the top of the headline. Improvement: Add a filter requiring the catalyst to be forward-looking (earnings, guidance, product) rather than a same-day market-cap/ranking headline, or at minimum require the stock to have closed in the upper half of its intraday range before taking the overnight-drift entry. Alternatively, add a hard stop: with -3.05% max adverse excursion vs. +0.06% favorable, a 1% overnight stop would have cut this loss by two-thirds. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.