Sun Oct-18 16:22:19
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #5061 Mon Sep-21 13:03:25
Why Sino-US trade defies zero-sum gravity
Recent China-US trade consultations emphasize dialogue over confrontation, highlighting the deep interdependence of US tech firms like Apple in Chinese supply chains and reducing decoupling risks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.16% | +0.03% | 333.52 | 339.42 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.81% | +0.09% | 573.31 | 619.99 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.19% | -0.04% | 678.53 | 752.47 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.72% | +0.12% | 1678.23 | 1722.03 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.67% | +0.27% | 437.59 | 446.51 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.63% | +0.21% | 355.31 | 364.50 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.38% | +0.07% | 179.81 | 195.76 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.13% | +0.19% | 222.61 | 228.38 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.71% | -0.04% | 254.09 | 259.35 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.44% | -0.08% | 491.81 | 501.99 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.41% | -0.01% | 349.73 | 356.98 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (regulatory: Recent China-US trade consultations emphasize dialogue over confrontation, highlighting the deep interdependence of US tech firms like Apple in Chinese supply chains and reducing decoupling risks.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already queued S1 long AAPL exiting 2026-09-21] → close +0.91% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +1.14% |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AAPL at close, exit next close (regulatory: Recent China-US trade consultations emphasize dialogue over confrontation, highlighting the deep interdependence of US tech firms like Apple in Chinese supply chains and reducing decoupling risks.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 20432) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-09-22] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.