🚨 Alert #5051 Mon Sep-21 13:01:19
Broadcom CEO Hock Tan reaffirmed the company's AI revenue targets of $115 billion for fiscal 2027 and $230 billion for fiscal 2028 while raising full-year fiscal 2026 guidance to $58 billion.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AVGO | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.63% | +0.35% | 355.31 | 364.50 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | PRICED | +3.47% | +0.29% | 40.25 | 41.64 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | +2.81% | +0.11% | 573.31 | 619.99 | |
| META | · unclear | PRICED | +2.19% | -0.20% | 678.53 | 752.47 | |
| ASML | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.72% | +0.10% | 1678.23 | 1722.03 | |
| TSM | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.67% | +0.27% | 437.59 | 446.51 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.38% | +0.10% | 179.81 | 195.76 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.13% | +0.19% | 222.61 | 228.38 | |
| PLTR | · unclear | FRESH | +0.86% | +0.09% | 177.85 | 183.25 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | FRESH | +0.71% | -0.10% | 254.09 | 259.35 | |
| MSFT | · unclear | FRESH | +0.44% | -0.06% | 491.81 | 501.99 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.41% | -0.11% | 349.73 | 356.98 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | primary long move already absorbed: AVGO +1.63% since prev close → close +0.01% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +1.14% |
| S4 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long AVGO at close, exit next close (guidance: Broadcom CEO Hock Tan reaffirmed the company's AI revenue targets of $115 billion for fiscal 2027 and $230 billion for fiscal 2028 while raising full-year fiscal 2026 guidance to $58 billion.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 363.52 | 364.49 | +1.94 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO S4 | +0.77% | -1.14% | Signal: Correct — the long direction worked, with price closing +0.27% above entry. Timing: Poor — the stock had already run +1.63% off the prior close before entry, so most of the news-driven move on the reaffirmed guidance was likely consumed pre-fill; the overnight drift that remained was modest. Exit: Mediocre but acceptable — the mechanical next-close exit captured +0.27% against a best unrealized of +0.77% (about a third of the peak) while avoiding the -1.14% drawdown. Dominant factor: timing — entering after a 1.6% same-day pop left little edge, turning a correct directional call into a small +$1.94 result. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.