overnight drift: buy ASML at close, exit next close (earnings: ASML reported Q2 2026 earnings that beat expectations and significantly raised its full-year 2026 net sales and gross margin guidance.)
Entry vs. outcome: The rationale bet on post-earnings drift after a beat-and-raise, but the drift didn't materialize — the position closed -0.77% despite touching +2.36% unrealized, meaning the edge existed intraday but the rigid next-close exit gave it all back and more. The core problem is that a strong beat is often fully priced in at the entry close, leaving no overnight drift left to capture.
Improvement: Add a profit-taking mechanism instead of a blind next-close exit — e.g., a trailing stop after +1.5% unrealized, or a hard take-profit at +2%. Alternatively, tighten the entry rule to require that the stock closed below some threshold of its post-earnings intraday high (evidence the beat isn't already fully priced), rather than buying any beat unconditionally.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
