🚨 Alert #38 Fri Jul-17 13:10:24
The U.S. NHTSA is developing new safety requirements and behavioral competencies for autonomous vehicles, citing recent incidents involving Alphabet's Waymo.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -6.16% · Δ 30m -0.37% · px 348.07 (prev 370.92) → close -0.41% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.72% · Δ 30m -0.22% · px 383.75 (prev 394.46) → close -0.52% |
| S4 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: sell GOOGL at close, exit next close (regulatory: The U.S. NHTSA is developing new safety requirements and behavioral competencies for autonomous vehicles, citing recent incidents involving Alphabet's Waymo.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | GOOGL | ▼ short | 2 | 346.58 | 352.43 | -11.70 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S4 | +3.42% | -3.74% | Entry vs. outcome: The short was premised on NHTSA regulatory scrutiny of Waymo, but Waymo is a rounding error in Alphabet's revenue mix — that's a headline, not a materiality-weighted catalyst, and GOOGL closed up ~1.7% against the position for a -$11.70 loss. Notably, the trade was up +3.42% unrealized at some point, so the thesis briefly "worked" but the rigid hold-to-next-close rule gave it all back and then some. Improvement: Either (a) add a materiality filter to the entry rule — only trade regulatory headlines if the affected segment is >5-10% of the company's revenue — or (b) add a take-profit exit (e.g., close if unrealized gain exceeds +2.5%) since overnight-drift edges are small and letting a +3.4% winner round-trip into a loss defeats the strategy's purpose. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.