🚨 Alert #3105 Mon Aug-24 13:12:09
ASML reported a record Q2 with revenue up 21.25% and strong order intake, while the article contrasts its EUV dominance with Canon's niche nanoimprint strategy.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long ASML (earnings: ASML reported a record Q2 with revenue up 21.25% and strong order intake, while the article contrasts its EUV dominance with Canon's niche nanoimprint strategy.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close -2.72% |
| S4 | ASML | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long ASML at close, exit next close (earnings: ASML reported a record Q2 with revenue up 21.25% and strong order intake, while the article contrasts its EUV dominance with Canon's niche nanoimprint strategy.) [skipped at close: s4_alignment — wanted long, ASML -1.50% vs prev close 1763.760009765625 (mark 1737.380126953125), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ▲ long | 1 | 1746.89 | 1737.61 | -9.28 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML S1 | +0.65% | -1.04% | Signal: The bullish call didn't play out — price closed 0.53% below entry, and the pre-entry tape (-0.46% since prev close, -0.40% in the last 30m) was already drifting against the thesis, suggesting the earnings pop had happened and been faded before the trade; whether the news was genuinely fresh at entry can't be confirmed from this data, but the price context points to staleness. Timing/Exit: The trade did see +0.65% unrealized, so a small gain was available, but the exit at -0.53% gave that back while at least avoiding the -1.04% trough — the exit is mediocre, not the main problem. Dominant factor: Stale signal/timing — entering long on already-reported record earnings into a declining tape; the predicted move appears to have been priced in before entry. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.