🚨 Alert #3106 Mon Aug-24 13:12:16
A coalition of state attorneys general is suing Meta for up to $1.4 trillion in civil penalties, alleging its platforms are addictive to youths and seeking court-ordered feature changes.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short META (regulatory: A coalition of state attorneys general is suing Meta for up to $1.4 trillion in civil penalties, alleging its platforms are addictive to youths and seeking court-ordered feature changes.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | META | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short META at close, exit next close (regulatory: A coalition of state attorneys general is suing Meta for up to $1.4 trillion in civil penalties, alleging its platforms are addictive to youths and seeking court-ordered feature changes.) [skipped at close: s4_alignment — wanted short, META +1.70% vs prev close 549.9000244140625 (mark 559.260009765625), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ▼ short | 1 | 549.24 | 559.30 | -10.06 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| META S1 | +0.43% | -2.17% | Signal (dominant factor): The bearish call was simply wrong — META rose ~1.8% against the short, and the position never got more than +0.43% in its favor. The regulatory-lawsuit thesis didn't translate into downside during the holding period. Timing: Entry was not chasing a move already made — price was roughly flat versus prior close (+0.19%) at decision time — so this wasn't a stale-signal problem. Exit: The exit at -1.83% gave back nearly all of what was available on the downside (worst unrealized -2.17%), so the exit was near the bottom of the trade's range; but with the direction wrong throughout, no exit choice would have salvaged more than the fleeting +0.43%. The data here doesn't show whether the exit was rule-driven or discretionary. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.