Mon Aug-31 19:04:58
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3077 Fri Aug-21 21:00:16
Chip Stocks Didn't Fall on Chip News This Week. They Fell on a 19-Year High in the 30-Year Treasury Yield.
Semiconductor stocks including AMD and Nvidia declined significantly due to rising 30-year Treasury yields rather than company-specific negative news.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.96% | +0.53% | 463.05 | 475.79 | |
| PLTR | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.41% | +0.59% | 173.00 | 181.55 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.07% | +0.03% | 36.63 | 37.47 | |
| peer AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.27% | +0.24% | 365.20 | 373.98 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.89% | 0.00% | 214.72 | 218.48 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.86% | -0.13% | 959.33 | 988.00 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.83% | -0.12% | 1742.38 | 1771.53 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.65% | -0.06% | 417.05 | 423.98 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.08% | -0.10% | 159.40 | 162.85 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short AMD (other: Semiconductor stocks including AMD and Nvidia declined significantly due to rising 30-year Treasury yields rather than company-specific negative news.) [skipped: post-close — wanted short AMD after the 2026-08-21 session close; same-day exit window gone] → close -0.08% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | inferred short contradicts tape: AVGO +1.27% since prev close → close -0.32% |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short AMD at close, exit next close (other: Semiconductor stocks including AMD and Nvidia declined significantly due to rising 30-year Treasury yields rather than company-specific negative news.) [skipped: post-close — wanted short AMD after the 2026-08-21 session close; close-entry window gone] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.