verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy NVDA (partnership: Nvidia and Palantir have formed a partnership to help government agencies build secure, sovereign AI systems.)
overnight drift: buy NVDA at close, exit next close (partnership: Nvidia and Palantir have formed a partnership to help government agencies build secure, sovereign AI systems.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy NVDA exiting 2026-07-21]
Entry vs. outcome: The entry treated a broad "partnership announcement" as fresh bullish catalyst, but government/sovereign-AI partnership news is typically low-materiality for a mega-cap like NVDA — and the price action confirmed it, never gaining more than +0.28% before drifting to a -0.57% loss. The "FRESH" verdict measured recency, not impact.
Improvement: Add a materiality filter to the entry rule: require the catalyst to have a plausible revenue impact relative to market cap (e.g., skip partnership headlines with no dollar figures for stocks >$500B cap), or demand price confirmation (e.g., stock up >0.5% on above-average volume within 30 min of the news) before buying. FRESH alone shouldn't be sufficient — FRESH + MATERIAL should be the bar.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
