kingfisher — alert #26

🚨 Alert #26 Thu Jul-16 14:30:26

The company that makes all the West's chipmaking machines says it's selling more than it expected thanks to 'very strong momentum in both DRAM and advanced logic'

pcgamer.com · Thu Jul-16 14:21:42 published · Thu Jul-16 14:30:26 alerted · alerted 8m after publish · read at www.pcgamer.com ↗ · guidance · mat 65

ASML raised its 2026 guidance, citing strong demand from both DRAM and advanced logic chipmakers driven by the AI boom, with EUV system sales expected to grow over 45% year-over-year.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary ASML	▲ bullish	REPRICING	-0.58%	+1.07%	1765.85	1850.49
AMD	▲ bullish	PRICED	-3.79%	-0.18%	492.08	516.11
MU	▲ bullish	PRICED	-3.42%	+2.31%	830.40	877.23
peer TSM	▲ bullish	PRICED	-3.10%	+0.96%	398.04	415.14
SMCI	▲ bullish	REPRICING	-1.12%	+0.92%	24.62	26.59
NVDA	▲ bullish	REPRICING	-0.83%	+0.85%	205.56	210.73

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	ASML	● enter	▲ long	verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy ASML (guidance: ASML raised its 2026 guidance, citing strong demand from both DRAM and advanced logic chipmakers driven by the AI boom, with EUV system sales expected to grow over 45% year-over-year.)
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	TSM	○ skip	—	verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -3.10% · Δ 30m +0.96% · px 406.67 (prev 419.67) → close +0.67%
S4	ASML	● enter	▲ long	overnight drift: buy ASML at close, exit next close (guidance: ASML raised its 2026 guidance, citing strong demand from both DRAM and advanced logic chipmakers driven by the AI boom, with EUV system sales expected to grow over 45% year-over-year.)

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S1	ASML	▲ long	1	1807.43	1782.77	-24.66	closed
S4	ASML	▲ long	1	1784.10	1749.14	-34.96	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
ASML S1	+2.29%	-1.46%	The entry rationale was solid on paper—raised guidance and AI-driven EUV demand is a legitimate bullish catalyst—but the trade still lost money, and the fact that it touched +2.29% before reversing to a loss means the system had no mechanism to lock in gains or cut losses before giving back the whole move. This is a trade management failure, not a thesis failure: add a trailing stop or partial-profit rule (e.g., trim at +1.5-2% or trail stop to breakeven once unrealized gain exceeds 1.5x the eventual loss threshold) so REPRICING trades with strong initial follow-through don't round-trip into red.
ASML S4	+0.33%	-4.45%	Entry vs. outcome: The thesis was that strong guidance news would produce positive overnight drift, but the trade never got traction (max +0.33%) and bled to -1.96%, suggesting the good news was already priced in by the close — a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" fade on a headline that hit intraday. Improvement: Add a filter requiring the entry only if the stock's same-day move on the news is below some threshold (e.g., +2%); if the guidance pop already happened before the close, skip the trade or flip to a fade. Alternatively, add a hard stop at -1.5% intraday, since the -4.45% max drawdown shows the strategy has no exit discipline between entry and next close.

ticker

mfe

mae

reflection

ASML S1

+2.29%

-1.46%

The entry rationale was solid on paper—raised guidance and AI-driven EUV demand is a legitimate bullish catalyst—but the trade still lost money, and the fact that it touched +2.29% before reversing to a loss means the system had no mechanism to lock in gains or cut losses before giving back the whole move. This is a trade management failure, not a thesis failure: add a trailing stop or partial-profit rule (e.g., trim at +1.5-2% or trail stop to breakeven once unrealized gain exceeds 1.5x the eventual loss threshold) so REPRICING trades with strong initial follow-through don't round-trip into red.

ASML S4

+0.33%

-4.45%

Entry vs. outcome: The thesis was that strong guidance news would produce positive overnight drift, but the trade never got traction (max +0.33%) and bled to -1.96%, suggesting the good news was already priced in by the close — a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" fade on a headline that hit intraday.

Improvement: Add a filter requiring the entry only if the stock's same-day move on the news is below some threshold (e.g., +2%); if the guidance pop already happened before the close, skip the trade or flip to a fade. Alternatively, add a hard stop at -1.5% intraday, since the -4.45% max drawdown shows the strategy has no exit discipline between entry and next close.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.