overnight drift: buy TSM at close, exit next close (guidance: TSMC issued Q3 2026 guidance projecting revenue of USD 44.6-45.8 billion with gross margin of 65-67% and operating margin of 56-58%.)
Entry vs. outcome: The entry assumed strong Q3 guidance would produce positive overnight drift, but the news was almost certainly priced in by the close — the trade never got more than +0.49% ahead while drawing down -5.62%, a classic sell-the-news pattern where buying strength at the close after a public catalyst captures no edge.
Improvement: Require confirmation before entry — only take the overnight drift trade if the after-hours print is positive (e.g., +0.3% or better vs. close) within 30 minutes of the announcement; buying the close blind on "good news" is just paying the top tick. Alternatively, add a hard exit at -2% unrealized so a thesis this thin can't ride to -5.6% before settling the loss.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
