🚨 Alert #2469 Wed Aug-12 18:20:42
TSMC reported a 44.7% year-over-year revenue increase for July driven by strong AI chip demand from major customers including Nvidia, AMD, and Apple.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.66% | +0.23% | 427.00 | 432.60 | |
| counterparty NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.96% | +0.34% | 219.15 | 224.84 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.62% | -0.02% | 477.04 | 491.04 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.89% | +0.16% | 300.83 | 305.20 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.69% | -0.10% | 414.75 | 426.56 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.28% | -0.03% | 341.04 | 346.61 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: TSMC reported a 44.7% year-over-year revenue increase for July driven by strong AI chip demand from major customers including Nvidia, AMD, and Apple.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long TSM exiting 2026-08-12] → close -0.20% |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.96% · Δ 30m +0.34% · px 223.93 (prev 217.50) → close -0.27% |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported a 44.7% year-over-year revenue increase for July driven by strong AI chip demand from major customers including Nvidia, AMD, and Apple.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 428.13 | 430.33 | +4.40 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S4 | +1.80% | -0.31% | Signal: correct — TSM continued higher overnight, consistent with the earnings-driven thesis, and downside risk was trivial (-0.31% worst). Timing: partially late — the stock was already +1.66% off the prior close at decision time, so a chunk of the earnings reaction was priced in before entry (whether the July revenue news itself was fully absorbed can't be settled from this data alone). Exit: the dominant issue. The trade banked +0.51% (+$4.40), but the position saw +1.80% unrealized (~$15.4 available), meaning the fixed next-close exit gave back roughly two-thirds of the peak move. Right direction, mediocre entry level, and an exit that captured only a minority of what was available — exit capture is the bluntest shortfall here. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.