🚨 Alert #2419 Wed Aug-12 13:20:23
Micron Technology is enforcing strict long-term take-or-pay contracts with customers to secure memory supply, backed by over $22 billion in commitments.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.57% | +0.05% | 886.10 | 934.82 | |
| AMD | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.00% | +0.03% | 477.04 | 491.04 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | FRESH | +0.76% | -0.11% | 219.15 | 224.84 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | FRESH | +0.53% | +0.11% | 267.14 | 273.99 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.50% | -0.08% | 341.04 | 346.61 | |
| MSFT | · unclear | FRESH | -0.47% | +0.43% | 488.82 | 501.46 | |
| META | · unclear | FRESH | +0.31% | +0.02% | 578.33 | 602.08 | |
| TSLA | · unclear | FRESH | +0.16% | -0.10% | 323.86 | 335.06 | |
| peer AAPL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.10% | +0.03% | 300.83 | 305.20 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.57% · Δ 30m +0.05% · px 890.84 (prev 868.52) → close +2.41% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AAPL | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AAPL (other: Micron Technology is enforcing strict long-term take-or-pay contracts with customers to secure memory supply, backed by over $22 billion in commitments.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S2 long AAPL decision 9770] |
| S4 | MU | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +2.57% · Δ 30m +0.05% · px 890.84 (prev 868.52) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | AAPL | ▼ short | 3 | 303.72 | 302.18 | +4.62 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S3 | +0.51% | -0.12% | Signal: Direction was right — AAPL fell after entry — though note the rationale is about Micron's supply contracts, and nothing here establishes a causal link to an AAPL short; the signal's logic can't be validated from this data, only its outcome. Timing: Fine. At decision time the stock was roughly flat (-0.10% since prior close), so the move had not already happened; the entry fill at 303.72 (vs. prev close 304.91) suggests some drift between decision and fill, but the bulk of the down-move came after entry. Exit: Near-optimal — the +0.51% realized gain essentially matches the +0.51% best unrealized, even though the close was mechanical (netted out against an opposing long decision), i.e., the good exit was luck of the netting timing, not a deliberate take-profit. Dominant factor: correct direction with a fortuitously well-timed forced exit. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.