🚨 Alert #2388 Tue Aug-11 20:00:40

Signal (dominant factor): The bearish call was wrong — QCOM never moved meaningfully lower after entry, reaching only +0.15% favorable at best while going -0.56% against the position. Timing: Entry wasn't chasing; the stock was only +0.25% off the prior close, so the anticipated downmove hadn't already occurred — it simply didn't occur at all during the holding period. Exit: The -0.31% realized loss sits between the +0.15% best and -0.56% worst, so the exit gave up little; there was almost nothing favorable available to capture. Bluntly: this was a directional miss, not a timing or exit problem — though whether the bearish thesis would have played out over a longer horizon isn't answerable from this data.

Signal: Weak/wrong at the horizon that matters — the short thesis was that QCOM would drift down by next close, but it closed slightly higher (163.06 → 163.22), so the predicted direction didn't hold over the intended hold period. Timing: The stock was only +0.25% off the prior close at decision time, so this wasn't a case of shorting after a big move had already happened. Exit: This is the dominant factor — the position saw +1.15% unrealized in its favor (roughly +$11 on this size) but the mechanical hold-to-close rule gave it all back, ending at -$0.96; the intraday dip the thesis anticipated did occur, just not by the close. The data doesn't show when the favorable move occurred, so whether it was plausibly capturable early vs. late in the session can't be determined from what's here.