🚨 Alert #2307 Mon Aug-10 20:30:39
Reports indicate TSMC is holding $1 billion of finished Apple A20 Pro wafers unable to be packaged due to a DRAM shortage, potentially constraining iPhone 18 Pro inventory.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short AAPL (product: Reports indicate TSMC is holding $1 billion of finished Apple A20 Pro wafers unable to be packaged due to a DRAM shortage, potentially constraining iPhone 18 Pro inventory.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short AAPL exiting 2026-08-10] → close +0.20% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MU | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -1.35% |
| S4 | AAPL | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short AAPL at close, exit next close (product: Reports indicate TSMC is holding $1 billion of finished Apple A20 Pro wafers unable to be packaged due to a DRAM shortage, potentially constraining iPhone 18 Pro inventory.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | AAPL | ▼ short | 3 | 307.77 | 304.88 | +8.67 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S4 | +1.55% | -0.55% | Signal: correct. The short thesis (supply-constraint negative news) played out — AAPL fell another ~0.94% after entry, delivering +$8.67. Timing: partially late. The stock had already dropped 1.97% from prior close by entry, so a meaningful chunk of the news reaction was priced in before the fill; the trade only captured the residual drift. Exit: adequate but not optimal. Best unrealized was +1.55% versus the +0.94% realized — the mechanical next-close exit gave back roughly 40% of the peak move, while the worst drawdown (-0.55%) was never threatening. Dominant factor: correct signal on a move that was already substantially underway, with the mechanical exit capturing most but not all of what remained. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.